Energy
Today’s price sits at the 60.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.4
- Upside to median
- -3.6%
- Last close
- $68.16
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -8.5%
- P10
- -20.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Assumed shareholder yield near 5% offset by earnings normalization as oil prices follow the official forecast lower, plus a small negative valuation-convergence term; wide dispersion reflects commodity-price uncertainty.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -0.5%
- P10
- -6.0%
Shareholder yield plus mid-cycle cash-flow growth after normalization of oil prices.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.52%
- Modeled excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.52% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Treasuries offer a higher median with far lower uncertainty.