Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 46.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 103.1
- Upside to median
- +3.1%
- Last close
- $47.84
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +85.0%
- P75
- +40.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -25.0%
- P10
- -50.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; a small positive drift from adoption and the fair-value scenarios with very wide, right-skewed dispersion based on historical bitcoin volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +40.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
Adoption drift with partial reversion of MVRV toward its long-run range; annualized dispersion remains very wide.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.52%
- Modeled excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.52% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Treasuries offer a competitive return with far lower uncertainty.