Valuation Lens — October 20, 2026
Higher real yields leave high-quality bonds modestly cheap, while oil, gold, Australia and US large caps trade above modeled current fair value.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
A 4.51% one-year Treasury par yield and a 2.77% 10-year real yield (99th percentile of the past decade) set a demanding hurdle for every risk asset.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.1%
- 10y real
- 2.8%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- Fixed IncomeBND+1.1Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.699.4–103.6
- Upside to median
- +1.6%
- 1y modeled
- +5.6%-1.5% to 12.7%
- vs Treasury
- +1.1%
- +0.7Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 104.194.7–113.0
- Upside to median
- +4.1%
- 1y modeled
- +7.5%-24.5% to 39.5%
- vs Treasury
- +3.0%
- +0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 101.191.7–110.0
- Upside to median
- +1.1%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-18.6% to 32.6%
- vs Treasury
- +2.5%
- CryptoBTC-USD-0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 98.981.3–118.8
- Upside to median
- -1.1%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-45.0% to 65.0%
- vs Treasury
- -1.5%
- -0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.092.9–105.1
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-14.0% to 27.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.0%
- Real EstateVNQ-0.5Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 97.690.2–105.4
- Upside to median
- -2.4%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-17.6% to 28.6%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- -1.0Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.089.9–102.1
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-15.8% to 27.8%
- vs Treasury
- +1.5%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.6Expensive
- Median fair value
- 91.684.2–99.4
- Upside to median
- -8.4%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-15.0% to 26.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- -1.9Expensive
- Median fair value
- 91.084.3–97.8
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-15.5% to 25.5%
- vs Treasury
- +0.5%
- MetalsGLD-2.0Expensive
- Median fair value
- 84.273.9–95.2
- Upside to median
- -15.8%
- 1y modeled
- +1.0%-22.1% to 24.1%
- vs Treasury
- -3.5%
- EnergyUSO-2.2Expensive
- Median fair value
- 83.574.6–93.4
- Upside to median
- -16.5%
- 1y modeled
- -6.0%-50.9% to 38.9%
- vs Treasury
- -10.5%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 31.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 68% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 38.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 46.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 51.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 54.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 58.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 67.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 76.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 81.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 83.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 86.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 14% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources46
- 1
- 2Strong earnings raise the bar for S&P 500State Street Investment Management
- 3Shiller PE RatioMultpl
- 4SMID Earnings PersistenceFirst Trust Portfolios
- 5MSCI USA IndexMSCI
- 6
- 7
- 8MSCI Japan IndexMSCI
- 9
- 10
- 11
- 12
- 13MSCI Korea IndexMSCI
- 14MSCI India IndexMSCI
- 15Emerging market equities: Making progressRBC Wealth Management
- 16MSCI China IndexMSCI
- 17Hong Kong (Hang Seng) P/E & CAPE 2026Siblis Research
- 18China in the Year of the HorseJ.P. Morgan Private Bank
- 19
- 20
- 21
- 22VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate ETFVanguard
- 23
- 24ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / ICE Data Indices
- 25ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / ICE Data Indices
- 26iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | HYGBlackRock iShares
- 27iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | LQDBlackRock iShares
- 28Gold Price TodayKitco
- 29Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 Central BanksWorld Gold Council
- 30Silver Price TodayKitco
- 31
- 32Platinum QuarterlyWorld Platinum Investment Council
- 33Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum ProductsU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 34Short-Term Energy OutlookU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 35STEO Data Browser – Table 3aU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 36XLE: State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETFState Street Investment Management
- 37Bitcoin PriceCoinGecko
- 38Bitcoin MVRV Ratio ChartNewhedge
- 39Bitcoin Realized Price ChartNewhedge
- 40
- 41Ethereum PriceCoinGecko
- 42iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | IBITBlackRock iShares
- 43NASDAQ 100 P/E Ratio & Earnings 2026Siblis Research
- 44
- 45iShares MSCI Australia ETF | EWABlackRock iShares
- 46
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- valuation-lens-2026-10-20-261020001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.