Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 58.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 97.6
- Upside to median
- -2.4%
- Last close
- $92.28
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-20
73/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.6%
- P75
- +17.6%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -6.6%
- P10
- -17.6%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (~3.8%) plus mid-single-digit FFO growth less a small valuation drag from the thin cap-rate spread; 18% one-year volatility reflecting rate sensitivity.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.3%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -8.3%
Three-year income and FFO path with partial cap-rate normalization; dispersion scaled by the square root of horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Modeled excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a thin modeled spread for equity-like volatility, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $26.05 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.22 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $90.60 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $27.98 | — |
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 97.6 | $92.28 | +5.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $42.38 | — |