Japan Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 67.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $95.43
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-20
72/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.8%
- P75
- +17.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -5.5%
- P10
- -15.8%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (~1.8%) plus mid-single-digit EPS growth and buyback support, less a modest valuation drag; 17% one-year volatility including unhedged currency risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.1%
- P75
- +12.1%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -1.1%
- P10
- -7.1%
Three-year earnings and dividend path with partial multiple normalization; dispersion scaled by the square root of horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments