Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 51.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 98.9
- Upside to median
- -1.1%
- Last close
- $46.71
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +65.0%
- P75
- +32.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Right-skewed scenario distribution with no cash yield: modest median drift from near-fair valuation, with tails set by on-chain cost-basis floors and prior-cycle highs.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +34.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -28.0%
Adoption, dilution and liquidity scenarios compounded over three years; low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Modeled excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a higher central return with far lower uncertainty.