Energy
Today’s price sits at the 86.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 14% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 83.5
- Upside to median
- -16.5%
- Last close
- $160.61
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.9%
- P75
- +17.6%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -29.6%
- P10
- -50.9%
43% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Front-month futures exposure: an expected spot decline toward the official 2027 path, partly offset by positive roll yield in a backwardated curve and collateral income; 35% one-year volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +21.6%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -17.5%
- P10
- -29.6%
Normalization toward a marginal-cost band with roll and collateral income; dispersion scaled by the square root of horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Modeled excess
- -10.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a materially higher modeled return with far lower uncertainty.