Developed Pacific Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWA · Australia Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 81.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.0
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- Last close
- $29.15
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-20
67/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.5%
- P75
- +15.8%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -5.8%
- P10
- -15.5%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (~3.6%) plus low-to-mid single-digit EPS growth less a valuation drag from a premium multiple; 16% one-year volatility in dollar terms.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.3%
- P75
- +10.7%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -1.7%
- P10
- -7.3%
Three-year dividend and earnings path with partial multiple normalization; dispersion scaled by the square root of horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Modeled excess
- +0.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; essentially no modeled edge over Treasuries for equity-level risk.