China & Hong Kong Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
MCHI · China Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 38.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.1
- Upside to median
- +4.1%
- Last close
- $50.96
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-20
70/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +39.5%
- P75
- +24.4%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -9.4%
- P10
- -24.5%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (2.4%) plus haircut EPS growth (~10%) plus a small partial re-rating toward median fair value, less a risk allowance; 25% one-year volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.2%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -3.2%
- P10
- -12.0%
Three-year earnings path with dividends and partial valuation convergence; dispersion scaled by the square root of horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Modeled excess
- +3.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread with wide dispersion, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.82 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.03 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $31.23 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.26 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $41.53 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.11 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $33.51 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.35 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 104.1 | $50.96 | +7.5% |