Metals
Today’s price sits at the 83.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 84.2
- Upside to median
- -15.8%
- Last close
- $377.65
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.1%
- P75
- +13.1%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -11.1%
- P10
- -22.1%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry or yield; a small positive drift from reserve demand offset by a partial pull toward modeled fair value under 2.8% real yields; 18% one-year volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.8%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +0.5%
- P25
- -6.5%
- P10
- -12.8%
Real-price path with partial reversion toward the real-yield-adjusted value band; dispersion scaled by the square root of horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Modeled excess
- -3.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a higher modeled return with much lower uncertainty.