US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 76.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.6
- Upside to median
- -8.4%
- Last close
- $769.05
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +16.3%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -5.3%
- P10
- -15.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield (~1.1% dividends plus buybacks) plus haircut forward EPS growth (consensus ~15.6% for 2027) less a valuation drag from partial convergence toward median fair value and a thin equity-risk premium; 16% one-year volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.8%
- P75
- +10.2%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -2.2%
- P10
- -7.8%
Three-year EPS path with partial margin normalization and multiple convergence toward a rate-adjusted level; dispersion scaled by the square root of horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Modeled excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; Treasuries offer nearly the same central return with far lower uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $524.36 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $275.78 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $717.63 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $215.86 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $546.36 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.6Expensive | 91.6 | $769.05 | +5.5% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $55.72 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $166.80 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $179.82 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $115.50 | — |