Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 31.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 68% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.6
- Upside to median
- +1.6%
- Last close
- $70.75
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.7%
- P75
- +9.3%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +1.9%
- P10
- -1.5%
85% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to worst (5.37%) plus a modest valuation contribution from partial convergence toward the justified-yield band, with a 5.5% one-year volatility for rate and spread shocks.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.0%
- P75
- +7.9%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +3.1%
- P10
- +1.0%
Yield-anchored three-year carry with reinvestment at modeled yields and partial yield normalization; dispersion scaled for a shorter-than-horizon duration.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Treasury bills offer most of this return with far less price risk.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 101.6 | $70.75 | +5.6% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $76.83 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $90.25 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $103.22 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.30 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $105.48 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $80.13 | — |