Emerging Markets Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 46.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.1
- Upside to median
- +1.1%
- Last close
- $58.25
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-20
70/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.6%
- P75
- +20.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -6.5%
- P10
- -18.6%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (~2.0%) plus haircut 2027 EPS growth (consensus +19%) less an allowance for semiconductor earnings mean reversion; 20% one-year volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +21.3%
- P75
- +14.3%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -1.3%
- P10
- -8.3%
Three-year cycle-adjusted earnings path with dividends; dispersion scaled by the square root of horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.51%
- Modeled excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread with wide dispersion, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $93.26 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $107.33 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $153.99 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $42.94 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $65.44 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.78 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.2Fair | 101.1 | $58.25 | +7.0% |