Valuation Lens — October 14, 2026

A 5.19% 10-year Treasury and a 2.84% 10-year real yield — both near two-decade highs — have raised the bar for every risk asset: investment-grade bonds and emerging-market equities are the only classes whose central modeled value sits at or above market price, while crude oil carries a large supply-disruption premium and Developed Pacific equities, listed real estate and gold trade meaningfully above modeled economic value.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 14, 2026Last market session Oct 14, 2026Data cutoff Oct 14, 2026, 7:58 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.53%1y Treasury

A 4.53% one-year Treasury par yield and a 2.84% ten-year real yield put the risk-free opportunity cost near its highest level in roughly two decades, which raises the return every risk asset must clear.

10y Treasury: 5.2%
10y real: 2.8%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
100.398.6–103.2
Upside to median
+0.3%
1y modeled
+6.3%-0.5% to 11.8%
vs Treasury
+1.8%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
103.788.4–109.1
Upside to median
+3.7%
1y modeled
+11.9%-20.9% to 42.0%
vs Treasury
+7.4%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.1
Fair
Median fair value
99.094.2–106.6
Upside to median
-1.0%
1y modeled
+8.6%-11.8% to 31.5%
vs Treasury
+4.1%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.281.7–110.0
Upside to median
-3.8%
1y modeled
+6.0%-48.0% to 85.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
US EquitiesSPY
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.782.7–101.9
Upside to median
-6.3%
1y modeled
+8.1%-14.0% to 32.0%
vs Treasury
+3.6%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.288.4–105.4
Upside to median
-5.8%
1y modeled
+7.6%-16.4% to 32.6%
vs Treasury
+3.1%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.285.6–109.2
Upside to median
-2.8%
1y modeled
+10.3%-23.1% to 48.0%
vs Treasury
+5.8%
MetalsGLD
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.282.6–101.3
Upside to median
-6.8%
1y modeled
+2.0%-22.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
-2.5%
Real EstateVNQ
-1.3
Expensive
Median fair value
95.986.7–100.2
Upside to median
-4.1%
1y modeled
+5.4%-7.3% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-2.1
Expensive
Median fair value
88.683.7–96.0
Upside to median
-11.4%
1y modeled
+4.0%-21.6% to 31.1%
vs Treasury
-0.5%
EnergyUSO
-2.6
Exceptionally expensive
Median fair value
83.976.8–88.3
Upside to median
-16.1%
1y modeled
+2.0%-34.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
-2.5%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-14, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	100.3 98.6–103.2	+0.3%	+6.3% -0.5% to 11.8%	+1.8%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.3 Fair	103.7 88.4–109.1	+3.7%	+11.9% -20.9% to 42.0%	+7.4%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.1 Fair	99.0 94.2–106.6	-1.0%	+8.6% -11.8% to 31.5%	+4.1%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.4 Somewhat expensive	96.2 81.7–110.0	-3.8%	+6.0% -48.0% to 85.0%	+1.5%
US Equities SPY	-0.6 Somewhat expensive	93.7 82.7–101.9	-6.3%	+8.1% -14.0% to 32.0%	+3.6%
Japan Equities EWJ	-0.6 Somewhat expensive	94.2 88.4–105.4	-5.8%	+7.6% -16.4% to 32.6%	+3.1%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	97.2 85.6–109.2	-2.8%	+10.3% -23.1% to 48.0%	+5.8%
Metals GLD	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	93.2 82.6–101.3	-6.8%	+2.0% -22.0% to 28.0%	-2.5%
Real Estate VNQ	-1.3 Expensive	95.9 86.7–100.2	-4.1%	+5.4% -7.3% to 23.0%	+0.9%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-2.1 Expensive	88.6 83.7–96.0	-11.4%	+4.0% -21.6% to 31.1%	-0.5%
Energy USO	-2.6 Exceptionally expensive	83.9 76.8–88.3	-16.1%	+2.0% -34.0% to 38.0%	-2.5%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 43.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 63%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 45.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 62%Historical base rate: 67%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 51.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 80%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.4Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 56.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-0.6Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 60.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 85%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-0.6Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 60.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 69%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 50%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 45%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-1.3Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 71.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 53%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-2.1Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 84.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 11% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 68%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-2.6Exceptionally expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 92.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 5% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources19

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026
FactSet Research Systems
2
S&P 500 Likely to Report Earnings Growth Above 35% for Q3
FactSet Research Systems
3
MSCI USA Index
MSCI
4
MSCI Europe Index
MSCI
5
MSCI Japan Index
MSCI
6
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index
MSCI
7
MSCI China Index
MSCI
8
iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
BlackRock
9
iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (EWS)
BlackRock
10
iShares MSCI New Zealand ETF (ENZL)
BlackRock
11
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
The Vanguard Group
12
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)
The Vanguard Group
13
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
The Vanguard Group
14
Bitcoin MVRV Ratio
Newhedge
15
Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 — Global oil markets
U.S. Energy Information Administration
16
REIT Industry Tracker and U.S. Real Estate Index Series
Nareit
17
Gold Demand Trends
World Gold Council
18
Crude Oil and commodity price board
Trading Economics
19
Oil forward curve — WTI and Brent futures strip
Baratelli Institute

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: valuation_lens_2026-10-14_001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.