Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 45.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.7
- Upside to median
- +3.7%
- Last close
- $58.90
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +42.0%
- P75
- +27.0%
- Median
- +11.9%
- P25
- -2.9%
- P10
- -20.9%
70% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a 3.25% shareholder yield, earnings growth spanning -6% to +21% against a reported 15.62% growth rate, and a multiple path from 13.0 to 19.0 against the current 16.1 times.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +24.3%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +11.1%
- P25
- +3.3%
- P10
- -4.9%
Three-year earnings compound growth of 0% to 15.5% with a terminal multiple between 12.5 and 18.5 times, plus a 3.25% shareholder yield, with partial rather than full multiple normalisation.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.53%
- Modeled excess
- +7.4%
- Basis
- proxy
The widest modeled edge over the 4.53% one-year Treasury in this report, at about 7.4 points, but earned with the second-widest one-year return range: the tenth percentile is a 20.9% loss.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.3Fair | 103.7 | $58.90 | +11.9% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | +0.3Fair | 103.7 | $95.11 | +11.9% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $110.94 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $159.83 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.04 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $42.60 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $63.28 | — |