US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 60.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.7
- Upside to median
- -6.3%
- Last close
- $769.60
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +19.5%
- Median
- +8.1%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a 2.7% shareholder yield from a 1.11% dividend yield plus an estimated 1.6% net buyback, forward earnings roll-up of 0% to 18% against consensus near 12%, and a multiple path from 14.0 to 21.0 against the current 19.1 times.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.3%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +7.1%
- P25
- +1.2%
- P10
- -5.2%
Three-year earnings compound growth held at 7.5% in the central case, below the current 32% pace, because the profit share of the economy is already at a record. Terminal multiples span 14.5 to 21.0 times, plus a 2.7% shareholder yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.53%
- Modeled excess
- +3.6%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled 3.6 point edge over the 4.53% one-year Treasury, but it rests on forward earnings continuing to roll up near 10%; at zero earnings growth and a de-rating to 15.5 times the one-year outcome is a loss of about 13%.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 93.7 | $769.60 | +8.1% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 93.7 | $515.63 | +8.1% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $212.09 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $271.37 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $728.95 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $564.74 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $54.52 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $167.04 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $173.96 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $111.50 | — |