Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 51.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- Last close
- $85.99
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +31.5%
- P75
- +19.3%
- Median
- +8.6%
- P25
- -1.2%
- P10
- -11.8%
72% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a 4.2% shareholder yield from a 2.87% dividend yield plus an estimated 1.3% net buyback, earnings growth of -3% to +13%, and a multiple path from 12.3 to 16.0 against the current 14.20 times.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.7%
- P75
- +13.7%
- Median
- +9.2%
- P25
- +4.7%
- P10
- -1.3%
Three-year earnings compound growth of 0% to 10.5% with a terminal multiple between 12.0 and 15.8 times, plus a 4.2% shareholder yield. The high shareholder yield makes this the most carry-supported equity class in the report.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.53%
- Modeled excess
- +4.1%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled 4.1 point edge over the 4.53% one-year Treasury, roughly 4.2 points of which is shareholder cash return rather than multiple expansion, making it less dependent on re-rating than most equity classes here.