Metals
Today’s price sits at the 69.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.2
- Upside to median
- -6.8%
- Last close
- $375.99
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price-only scenarios with no yield and a small negative carry for holding costs, spanning a real-yield-driven unwind to renewed reserve diversification. The central case is an inflation-linked drift partly offset by the valuation drag and negative carry.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -11.0%
Three-year annualised price-only scenarios in which official-sector demand either persists at current intensity, normalises toward pre-2022 levels, or accelerates on further reserve diversification.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.53%
- Modeled excess
- -2.5%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median of 2.0% falls about 2.5 points short of the 4.53% one-year Treasury. On this evidence cash offers a higher expected return than gold with far lower uncertainty.