Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 60.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.2
- Upside to median
- -5.8%
- Last close
- $95.84
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.6%
- P75
- +18.6%
- Median
- +7.6%
- P25
- -3.8%
- P10
- -16.4%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a 3.84% shareholder yield from a 1.84% dividend yield plus an estimated 2.0% buyback, earnings growth of -4% to +15%, and a multiple path from 13.0 to 17.5 against the current 15.63 times.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.5%
- P75
- +12.7%
- Median
- +7.4%
- P25
- +2.1%
- P10
- -4.3%
Three-year earnings compound growth of -1% to 11% with a terminal multiple between 12.5 and 16.8 times, plus a 3.84% shareholder yield reflecting the structural rise in Japanese buybacks.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.53%
- Modeled excess
- +3.1%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled 3.1 point edge over the 4.53% one-year Treasury for a dollar-based holder, before any currency hedge. An 8% yen appreciation would both lift translated returns and cut exporter earnings, so the net currency effect is not one-directional.