Energy
Today’s price sits at the 92.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 5% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 83.9
- Upside to median
- -16.1%
- Last close
- $153.56
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -16.0%
- P10
- -34.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return for a front-dated futures holding, combining expected spot convergence toward the official price path with the roll return earned from steep backwardation, less about 0.8% of holding costs. The large positive roll return substantially offsets the expected spot decline, which is why the expected return is far less negative than the valuation gap alone implies.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +6.0%
- Median
- -3.0%
- P25
- -10.5%
- P10
- -20.0%
Three-year annualised return as spot converges toward a mid-cycle 75 to 80 a barrel and global inventories rebuild, with the roll return diminishing as the curve flattens. The only negative three-year median in this report.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.53%
- Modeled excess
- -2.5%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median of 2.0% falls about 2.5 points short of the 4.53% one-year Treasury, with a tenth-percentile outcome of a 34% loss. The three-year annualised median is negative, the only such reading in this report.