Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 56.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 96.2
- Upside to median
- -3.8%
- Last close
- $46.24
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +85.0%
- P75
- +42.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -24.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price-only scenario distribution with no yield or carry, anchored on the four-year range of the market-value-to-realised-value ratio and on adoption and liquidity scenarios. The range is intentionally far wider than for any other class.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +44.0%
- P75
- +26.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -11.0%
- P10
- -28.0%
Three-year annualised price-only scenarios spanning a full cycle contraction to a renewed adoption expansion, with no mean-reversion assumption imposed on the cost-basis ratio.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.53%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled edge of under 1.5 points over the 4.53% one-year Treasury, against a one-year range running from a 48% loss to an 85% gain. On this evidence the Treasury offers a competitive expected return with dramatically lower uncertainty.