China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 64.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 97.2
- Upside to median
- -2.8%
- Last close
- $51.44
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +48.0%
- P75
- +30.8%
- Median
- +10.3%
- P25
- -5.7%
- P10
- -23.1%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a 3.9% shareholder yield from a 2.43% dividend yield plus an estimated 1.5% buyback, earnings growth of -5% to +20%, and a multiple path from 7.8 to 12.5 against the current 10.15 times.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +26.5%
- P75
- +18.6%
- Median
- +10.4%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -6.3%
Three-year earnings compound growth of -2% to 15% with a terminal multiple between 7.8 and 12.3 times, plus a 3.9% shareholder yield reflecting large platform buybacks and rising state-enterprise payouts.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.53%
- Modeled excess
- +5.8%
- Basis
- proxy
The second-widest modeled edge over the 4.53% one-year Treasury at about 5.8 points, but with a one-year range from a 23% loss to a 48% gain and the lowest scenario agreement of any equity class here.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 97.2 | $51.44 | +10.3% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 97.2 | $33.86 | +10.3% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $21.92 | — |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.90 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.08 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $31.36 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.51 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $42.00 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.09 | — |