Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 71.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.9
- Upside to median
- -4.1%
- Last close
- $90.35
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +14.8%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -7.3%
75% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a 3.38% distribution yield, adjusted-funds-from-operations growth of 1% to 7%, and a capitalisation-rate path from 5.10% to 6.45% against the current 5.7%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.4%
- P75
- +10.8%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- +3.6%
- P10
- -0.2%
Three-year annualised cash-flow growth of 1% to 7% with a terminal capitalisation rate between 5.10% and 6.55%, plus the 3.38% distribution yield. The income component makes this the narrowest equity-like three-year range in the report.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.53%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled edge of under one point over the 4.53% one-year Treasury for taking property, leverage and liquidity risk. The twenty-fifth percentile outcome is exactly flat, so cash is a genuinely competitive alternative here.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -1.3Expensive | 95.9 | $90.35 | +5.4% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | -1.3Expensive | 95.9 | $41.49 | +5.4% |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $25.66 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $27.94 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $88.32 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.14 | — |