Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 84.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 11% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 88.6
- Upside to median
- -11.4%
- Last close
- $28.54
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +31.1%
- P75
- +16.4%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -8.1%
- P10
- -21.6%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a 3.5% class-blended shareholder yield, earnings growth of -8% to +15% reflecting bank and miner sensitivity, and a multiple path from 16.5 to 22.5 against Australia's current 20.28 times.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.3%
- P75
- +9.6%
- Median
- +4.4%
- P25
- -0.7%
- P10
- -5.9%
Three-year earnings compound growth of -2% to 9.5% with a terminal multiple between 16.0 and 21.0 times, plus a 3.5% shareholder yield. The negative twenty-fifth percentile reflects the modeled de-rating pressure.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.53%
- Modeled excess
- -0.5%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median of 4.0% falls about half a point short of the 4.53% one-year Treasury. A dollar-based investor is not currently compensated for taking Pacific equity risk over cash on this evidence.