Valuation Lens — October 13, 2026

US large-cap equities carry the widest premium to modeled economic value in this set, while European equities, the broad US bond market and Chinese equities screen at or below their central fair-value estimates.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 13, 2026Last market session Oct 13, 2026Data cutoff Oct 13, 2026, 6:50 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.48%1y Treasury

A 4.48% one-year Treasury par yield sets a demanding annual cash hurdle, and a 2.88% ten-year real yield raises the justified discount rate on every long-duration asset in this report.

10y Treasury: 5.2%
10y real: 2.9%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
102.398.0–108.1
Upside to median
+2.3%
1y modeled
+7.8%-14.5% to 29.0%
vs Treasury
+3.3%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
100.398.8–102.4
Upside to median
+0.3%
1y modeled
+5.8%-1.2% to 12.8%
vs Treasury
+1.3%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
100.393.3–111.3
Upside to median
+0.3%
1y modeled
+7.5%-25.8% to 40.0%
vs Treasury
+3.0%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.794.2–106.7
Upside to median
+0.7%
1y modeled
+6.4%-16.3% to 29.0%
vs Treasury
+1.9%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
99.792.4–109.5
Upside to median
-0.3%
1y modeled
+8.2%-18.7% to 34.0%
vs Treasury
+3.7%
CryptoBTC-USD
0.0
Fair
Median fair value
101.788.4–111.9
Upside to median
+1.7%
1y modeled
+6.0%-48.0% to 74.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
EnergyUSO
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.087.2–103.2
Upside to median
-4.0%
1y modeled
+1.2%-31.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
-3.3%
Real EstateVNQ
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.689.2–102.2
Upside to median
-4.4%
1y modeled
+4.6%-19.8% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
+0.1%
MetalsGLD
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.087.4–102.7
Upside to median
-3.0%
1y modeled
+2.5%-23.1% to 27.0%
vs Treasury
-2.0%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.4
Expensive
Median fair value
95.888.8–100.6
Upside to median
-4.2%
1y modeled
+4.6%-17.2% to 25.6%
vs Treasury
+0.1%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
90.185.0–97.5
Upside to median
-9.9%
1y modeled
+3.8%-21.0% to 24.5%
vs Treasury
-0.7%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-13, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Europe Equities VGK	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	102.3 98.0–108.1	+2.3%	+7.8% -14.5% to 29.0%	+3.3%
Fixed Income BND	+0.5 Somewhat cheap	100.3 98.8–102.4	+0.3%	+5.8% -1.2% to 12.8%	+1.3%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	100.3 93.3–111.3	+0.3%	+7.5% -25.8% to 40.0%	+3.0%
Japan Equities EWJ	+0.1 Fair	100.7 94.2–106.7	+0.7%	+6.4% -16.3% to 29.0%	+1.9%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.1 Fair	99.7 92.4–109.5	-0.3%	+8.2% -18.7% to 34.0%	+3.7%
Crypto BTC-USD	0.0 Fair	101.7 88.4–111.9	+1.7%	+6.0% -48.0% to 74.0%	+1.5%
Energy USO	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	96.0 87.2–103.2	-4.0%	+1.2% -31.0% to 38.0%	-3.3%
Real Estate VNQ	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	95.6 89.2–102.2	-4.4%	+4.6% -19.8% to 28.0%	+0.1%
Metals GLD	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	97.0 87.4–102.7	-3.0%	+2.5% -23.1% to 27.0%	-2.0%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.4 Expensive	95.8 88.8–100.6	-4.2%	+4.6% -17.2% to 25.6%	+0.1%
US Equities SPY	-1.9 Expensive	90.1 85.0–97.5	-9.9%	+3.8% -21.0% to 24.5%	-0.7%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 34.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 80%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.5Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 41.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 44.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 60–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 50%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 47.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 69%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 47.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 60–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 67%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

0.0Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 49.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 65.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 67.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 53%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 66.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 45%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.4Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 72.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 68%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 44%Historical base rate: 85%

Sources11

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026
FactSet
2
MSCI Europe Index
MSCI
3
MSCI Japan Index
MSCI
4
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
MSCI
5
MSCI China Index
MSCI
6
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
BlackRock
7
Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global Oil Markets
U.S. Energy Information Administration
8
ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
9
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
10
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Outlook
World Gold Council
11
The State of REITs: June 2026 Edition
2nd Market Capital Advisory

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: 261013001-valuation-lens-2026-10-13

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.