Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 67.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.6
- Upside to median
- -4.4%
- Last close
- $91.14
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +17.4%
- Median
- +4.6%
- P25
- -8.2%
- P10
- -19.8%
59% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return from a 4.2% distribution yield, about 4% growth in adjusted cash earnings, and roughly two and a half points of negative valuation contribution as the capitalisation-rate spread to the ten-year Treasury partially normalises; dispersion near 19%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.6%
- P75
- +10.6%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.6%
Three-year explicit model with adjusted cash earnings compounding near 4% a year, a 4.2% distribution yield, a 19.5x terminal adjusted-earnings multiple and a 9.0% discount rate reflecting the sector's refinancing burden.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.48%
- Modeled excess
- +0.1%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled annual edge of about 0.1% over the 4.48% one-year Treasury par yield. On these numbers the Treasury offers an essentially equivalent expected return with materially lower uncertainty, and that comparison should be read plainly.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 95.6 | $91.14 | +4.6% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | 95.6 | $41.83 | +4.6% |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $25.82 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.27 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $88.39 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $28.63 | — |