Energy
Today’s price sits at the 65.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $153.09
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +22.3%
- Median
- +1.2%
- P25
- -15.5%
- P10
- -31.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blended across commodity-tracking and producer-equity holdings: roughly three points of positive roll yield from the current backwardation, a negative valuation contribution as the official forward path falls from $105 to $84 a barrel, and about four points of producer cash distributions on an 8% to 9% free-cash-flow yield; dispersion near 28%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- -0.5%
- P25
- -7.5%
- P10
- -17.0%
Three-year model following the official forward path to a $74 fourth-quarter 2027 Brent price and a gradual inventory rebuild, which is strongly negative for front-month commodity vehicles and roughly flat for producer equities valued on a lower mid-cycle deck; the blend nets to approximately zero.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.48%
- Modeled excess
- -3.3%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled annual shortfall of about 3.3% against the 4.48% one-year Treasury par yield, the widest negative edge in this report. Cash offers a higher modelled return with far lower uncertainty.