US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 82.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.1
- Upside to median
- -9.9%
- Last close
- $778.01
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.5%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +3.8%
- P25
- -8.5%
- P10
- -21.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return from earnings growth of about 9% including buyback accretion, which shrinks the far higher consensus figure toward a sustainable trend, a 1.15% dividend yield, and roughly six points of negative valuation contribution as a partial move toward the modelled central fair value; dispersion near 17% with deliberate left skew because high starting valuations historically widen the downside tail.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +11.8%
- Median
- +5.8%
- P25
- -0.2%
- P10
- -5.5%
Three-year explicit model with earnings compounding near 7.5% a year, a 1.2% dividend yield, and the forward multiple drifting from 19.1x toward 17.5x, which subtracts roughly 2.9 percentage points a year; discounted consistently with a 5.21% ten-year yield plus a three-point premium.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.48%
- Modeled excess
- -0.7%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled annual shortfall of about 0.7% against the 4.48% one-year Treasury par yield. Cash offers a comparable or better modelled one-year return with no valuation risk, which is the plainest statement of the price discipline this asset class currently demands.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.9Expensive | 90.1 | $778.01 | +3.8% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | 95.0 | $516.21 | +3.8% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | 97.0 | $276.70 | +3.8% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | 86.0 | $743.57 | +3.8% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | 96.6 | $213.30 | +3.8% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $588.12 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $54.82 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.67 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $169.66 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $112.36 | — |