China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 44.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 60–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 100.3
- Upside to median
- +0.3%
- Last close
- $52.14
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +40.0%
- P75
- +25.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -25.8%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return from earnings growth of about 9% shrunk toward the asset class's own realised record, a 3.0% combined dividend and buyback yield, and no assumed valuation convergence; dispersion of about 26% reflects policy, governance and capital-access risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +8.4%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -7.0%
Three-year explicit model with earnings compounding near 8% a year, rising cash distributions and buybacks worth about 3.0% annually, and a terminal multiple of 11.0x discounted at a dollar-based required return of 12%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.48%
- Modeled excess
- +3.0%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled annual edge of about 3.0% over the 4.48% one-year Treasury par yield, earned against the widest return dispersion of any equity asset class in this report outside digital assets.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 100.3 | $52.14 | +7.5% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | 100.3 | $34.17 | +7.5% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.84 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.10 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $32.11 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.13 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $43.09 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.35 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.72 | — |