Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 47.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.7
- Upside to median
- +0.7%
- Last close
- $97.32
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.0%
- P75
- +18.9%
- Median
- +6.4%
- P25
- -5.3%
- P10
- -16.3%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return from earnings growth of about 7% after shrinkage, a 1.9% distribution yield with buyback accretion already inside the earnings figure, and no net valuation contribution; dispersion of about 18% reflects unhedged currency translation and domestic policy normalisation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.4%
- P75
- +12.3%
- Median
- +7.2%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -3.8%
Three-year explicit model with earnings compounding near 7% a year as return on equity crosses 10%, a 1.9% distribution yield, a 15.5x terminal multiple and a dollar-based discount rate of 8.8%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.48%
- Modeled excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled annual edge of about 1.9% over the 4.48% one-year Treasury par yield, which is thin once unhedged currency risk is taken into account.