Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 34.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.3
- Upside to median
- +2.3%
- Last close
- $86.31
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.0%
- P75
- +19.5%
- Median
- +7.8%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -14.5%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into sustainable earnings growth of about 6%, a 2.9% cash distribution yield and roughly one percentage point of valuation convergence toward the modelled central fair value, shrunk toward the asset class's unconditional long-run return and widened for unhedged currency translation; quantiles from a two-piece normal fit with an annual dispersion near 17%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +8.6%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -2.5%
Three-year explicit model: earnings compounding near 6.5% a year with fiscal, defence and bank capital-return support, a 2.9% distribution yield, and partial multiple convergence toward a 14.5x justified forward multiple, discounted at a dollar-based required return of 8.6%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.48%
- Modeled excess
- +3.3%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled annual edge of about 3.3% over the 4.48% one-year Treasury par yield, carried mainly by distribution yield rather than by multiple expansion; this is a modelled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 102.3 | $86.31 | +7.8% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | —Unavailable | 102.3 | $65.88 | +7.8% |
| EWG Germany Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.20 | — |
| EWL Switzerland Index | —Unavailable | — | $59.89 | — |
| EWQ France Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.63 | — |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.82 | — |