Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 72.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.8
- Upside to median
- -4.2%
- Last close
- $28.77
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.6%
- P75
- +16.1%
- Median
- +4.6%
- P25
- -6.9%
- P10
- -17.2%
60% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return from earnings growth of about 6% shrunk toward the region's own record, a blended 3.6% distribution yield, and roughly three points of negative valuation contribution from the elevated starting multiple; dispersion near 17% including unhedged currency translation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.4%
- P75
- +10.4%
- Median
- +5.2%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.6%
Three-year explicit model with earnings compounding near 5% a year, a 3.6% blended distribution yield, a 15.5x terminal multiple partially reverting toward the long-run average, and a dollar-based discount rate of 8.8%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.48%
- Modeled excess
- +0.1%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled annual edge of about 0.1% over the 4.48% one-year Treasury par yield. On these numbers the Treasury offers an essentially equivalent expected return with materially lower uncertainty.