Metals
Today’s price sits at the 66.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 97.0
- Upside to median
- -3.0%
- Last close
- $381.67
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -11.0%
- P10
- -23.1%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry, and a modest storage and holding cost, so the modelled return is the valuation contribution plus metal-specific supply and demand effects: a negative pull from the modelled central fair value offset by physical deficits in silver and copper and continued official-sector gold buying; dispersion near 20% reflecting the blend of bullion, industrial metals and producer equities.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.6%
- P75
- +9.4%
- Median
- +3.4%
- P25
- -2.4%
- P10
- -9.0%
Three-year model from partial real-price normalisation against a slowly declining real yield, persistent official-sector purchases, flat mine supply, and the industrial-metal deficits running through the period; producer equities contribute cash returns on a lower mid-cycle metal deck.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.48%
- Modeled excess
- -2.0%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled annual shortfall of about 2.0% against the 4.48% one-year Treasury par yield. For an asset class with no cash flow, that cash yield is the binding opportunity cost and should be read plainly.