Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 49.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 101.7
- Upside to median
- +1.7%
- Last close
- $47.13
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +74.0%
- P75
- +40.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -26.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No cash flow, so the modelled return is the sum of growth in the aggregate on-chain cost basis and the change in the market-value-to-realised-value ratio from a below-median starting point, shrunk heavily for the absence of any usable calibration history and for the dilution and issuance economics of the non-bitcoin holdings; dispersion near 48% with deliberate right skew.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +40.0%
- P75
- +24.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
Three-year model from post-halving issuance near 0.8% a year, continued growth in the aggregate cost basis, and reversion of the market-value-to-realised-value ratio toward its own post-2020 median; annualised dispersion narrows with horizon but remains the widest in this report.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.48%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled annual edge of about 1.5% over the 4.48% one-year Treasury par yield, against an annual dispersion near 48%. On these numbers the Treasury offers a competitive expected return with vastly lower uncertainty, and that comparison should be read plainly.