Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 47.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 60–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 99.7
- Upside to median
- -0.3%
- Last close
- $59.68
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +34.0%
- P75
- +22.4%
- Median
- +8.2%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -18.7%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return from earnings growth of about 10% shrunk hard toward the asset class's own realised record, a 2.6% distribution yield and roughly half a point of valuation convergence; dispersion of about 21% reflects currency, semiconductor-cycle and trade-policy risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +20.8%
- P75
- +14.6%
- Median
- +8.6%
- P25
- +2.6%
- P10
- -4.0%
Three-year explicit model with earnings compounding near 7% a year off an already-elevated forward base, a 2.6% distribution yield, an 11.5x terminal multiple and a dollar-based discount rate of 11%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.48%
- Modeled excess
- +3.7%
- Basis
- direct
The widest modelled annual edge over the 4.48% one-year Treasury par yield in this report, at about 3.7%, earned against currency and semiconductor-cycle risk.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.1Fair | 99.7 | $59.68 | +8.2% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | 99.7 | $97.23 | +8.2% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $113.46 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $166.56 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $42.87 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $64.32 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.24 | — |