Valuation Lens — October 11, 2026

Real estate and investment-grade bonds screen closest to economically justified value, while US large-cap equities trade roughly 17% above central modeled fair value against a 10-year real yield near a two-decade high.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 11, 2026Last market session Oct 9, 2026Data cutoff Oct 12, 2026, 5:17 AM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.47%1y Treasury

The one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47% sets a demanding annual cash hurdle while the 10-year real yield of 2.91% sits close to its highest level in two decades, raising the discount rate applied to every long-duration asset.

10y Treasury: 5.2%
10y real: 2.9%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Real EstateVNQ
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
105.887.9–115.6
Upside to median
+5.8%
1y modeled
+7.0%-14.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.399.0–103.5
Upside to median
+1.3%
1y modeled
+5.3%-1.0% to 10.8%
vs Treasury
+0.8%
MetalsGLD
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
99.889.8–107.9
Upside to median
-0.2%
1y modeled
+3.0%-18.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
-1.5%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
99.389.1–110.1
Upside to median
-0.7%
1y modeled
+7.0%-20.0% to 29.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.692.2–102.6
Upside to median
-2.4%
1y modeled
+7.0%-10.5% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-0.5
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
91.689.0–105.2
Upside to median
-8.4%
1y modeled
+7.0%-12.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-0.5
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.788.0–106.2
Upside to median
-4.3%
1y modeled
+5.5%-12.0% to 17.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.489.8–105.5
Upside to median
-4.6%
1y modeled
+7.0%-16.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
CryptoBTC-USD
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
92.185.5–108.1
Upside to median
-7.9%
1y modeled
+2.0%-45.0% to 65.0%
vs Treasury
-2.5%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
85.680.3–93.0
Upside to median
-14.4%
1y modeled
+4.0%-15.0% to 20.0%
vs Treasury
-0.5%
EnergyUSO
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
91.381.4–98.0
Upside to median
-8.7%
1y modeled
-6.0%-34.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
-10.5%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-11, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Real Estate VNQ	+0.8 Somewhat cheap	105.8 87.9–115.6	+5.8%	+7.0% -14.0% to 23.0%	+2.5%
Fixed Income BND	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	101.3 99.0–103.5	+1.3%	+5.3% -1.0% to 10.8%	+0.8%
Metals GLD	-0.2 Fair	99.8 89.8–107.9	-0.2%	+3.0% -18.0% to 24.0%	-1.5%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	-0.2 Fair	99.3 89.1–110.1	-0.7%	+7.0% -20.0% to 29.0%	+2.5%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.4 Somewhat expensive	97.6 92.2–102.6	-2.4%	+7.0% -10.5% to 23.0%	+2.5%
Japan Equities EWJ	-0.5 Somewhat expensive	91.6 89.0–105.2	-8.4%	+7.0% -12.0% to 22.0%	+2.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-0.5 Somewhat expensive	95.7 88.0–106.2	-4.3%	+5.5% -12.0% to 17.0%	+1.0%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-0.8 Somewhat expensive	95.4 89.8–105.5	-4.6%	+7.0% -16.0% to 24.0%	+2.5%
Crypto BTC-USD	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	92.1 85.5–108.1	-7.9%	+2.0% -45.0% to 65.0%	-2.5%
US Equities SPY	-1.9 Expensive	85.6 80.3–93.0	-14.4%	+4.0% -15.0% to 20.0%	-0.5%
Energy USO	-1.9 Expensive	91.3 81.4–98.0	-8.7%	-6.0% -34.0% to 24.0%	-10.5%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+0.8Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 36.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 53%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 52.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 46%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 52.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 60–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 50%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.4Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 56.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 80%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-0.5Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 59.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 41% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 69%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-0.5Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 59.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 68%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-0.8Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 67%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 67.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 48%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 81.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 16% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 85%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 81.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 10% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 60–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 31%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources15

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026
FactSet
2
S&P 500 Likely to Report Earnings Growth Above 35% for Q3
FactSet
3
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4
ICE BofA US Corporate Index Effective Yield (BAMLC0A0CMEY)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
5
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield (BAMLH0A0HYM2EY)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6
ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
7
Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
8
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026: Outlook
World Gold Council
9
Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations
Siblis Research
10
Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations
Siblis Research
11
Compelling Valuations in Japan
Hennessy Funds
12
Australian (ASX) Market Analysis & Valuation
Simply Wall St
13
Nareit REIT Industry Tracker, Q2 2026
Nareit
14
Silver Is Headed for a Sixth Straight Year of Supply Shortfall
GlobeNewswire
15
MVRV & MVRV Z-Score — Bitcoin's cost-basis valuation metric
btclyzer

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw_valuation_lens_2026-10-11

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.