Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 64.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.4
- Upside to median
- -4.6%
- Last close
- $59.76
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
72% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of a 6.27% trailing earnings yield, a distribution yield of about 2.6%, earnings growth drawn from the implied trailing-to-forward gap but heavily haircut because that gap is concentrated in one market, and a valuation-change term spanning a de-rating to 13.0x trailing to a re-rating to 17.0x. Currency is carried as an unhedged risk. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +3.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Three-year path combining nominal earnings growth converging on emerging-market output growth, a rising payout, and partial convergence of the cyclically adjusted multiple from 19.06x toward the world aggregate's 29.05x.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The exposure is unhedged and concentrated, so the realised spread depends materially on emerging-market currencies and on the semiconductor cycle.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 95.4 | $59.76 | +7.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 95.4 | $99.02 | +7.0% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $114.31 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $177.24 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.03 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $43.54 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $63.80 | — |