US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 81.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 16% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 85.6
- Upside to median
- -14.4%
- Last close
- $778.57
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of forward earnings growth, dividend yield of about 1.1% with net repurchases already captured in per-share earnings growth, and a valuation-change term. The central case pairs about 12% growth in next-twelve-month earnings with the forward multiple easing from 19.1 to 17.5 times, reflecting that the multiple has already fallen from 20.4 at the end of June while the policy path still points higher. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%. A long-run historical equity return is used only as a sanity check, not as the estimate.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.5%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +6.3%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -2.5%
Three-year path combining earnings compounding at about 9% a year as the current exceptional growth rate decelerates, a 1.1% dividend yield, and the forward multiple drifting from 19.1 toward 17.0 times, which is a drag of about 3.8 percentage points a year. Full mean reversion of the multiple or of margins is not assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -0.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled annual shortfall against the one-year Treasury par yield, not a forecast. At today's valuation and rate combination the one-year Treasury offers a competitive expected return with materially lower uncertainty than US large-cap equity, which is the central decision-relevant finding for this asset class.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.9Expensive | 85.6 | $778.57 | +4.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -1.9Expensive | 85.6 | $516.11 | +4.0% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -1.9Expensive | 85.6 | $213.04 | +4.0% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $278.94 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $751.27 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $603.33 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $54.73 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $169.25 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $170.81 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $112.85 | — |