Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 56.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 97.6
- Upside to median
- -2.4%
- Last close
- $86.03
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -10.5%
76% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of a 6.72% forward earnings yield, a distribution yield of about 3.2%, earnings growth of roughly 8% haircut for European delivery risk, and a valuation-change term spanning a de-rating to 13.2x forward to a re-rating to 16.0x forward. Currency is carried as an unhedged risk rather than as a central drift because the broad dollar index is roughly flat year over year. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year path combining distribution yield, rising buybacks, nominal earnings growth of about 6% and partial de-rating of the trailing multiple from 18.71x toward 17.5x.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The exposure is unhedged, so the realised spread also depends on the euro, sterling and Swiss franc against the dollar.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 97.6 | $86.03 | +7.0% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 97.6 | $65.88 | +7.0% |
| EWG Germany Index | —Unavailable | — | $40.96 | — |
| EWQ France Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.52 | — |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.52 | — |
| EWL Switzerland Index | —Unavailable | — | $59.75 | — |