Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 36.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 105.8
- Upside to median
- +5.8%
- Last close
- $90.65
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
72% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of distribution yield of about 4.3%, cash-flow growth drawn from the reported 12.4% funds-from-operations growth rate haircut toward the long-run average, and a valuation-change term spanning capitalisation-rate expansion of up to 80 basis points to compression of 40 basis points. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year path combining distribution yield, same-store net operating income growth normalising toward 4%, the staged repricing of roughly a sixth of the fixed-rate debt stack each year at about 170 basis points higher, and partial closure of the gap between listed and private values.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The hurdle is quoted on an investment basis; the one-year bill rate of 4.26% is a discount-basis quote and is not a holding-period return.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 105.8 | $90.65 | +7.0% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 105.8 | $41.61 | +7.0% |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $25.69 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.49 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $87.84 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $29.18 | — |