Energy
Today’s price sits at the 81.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 10% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 60–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 91.3
- Upside to median
- -8.7%
- Last close
- $148.20
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -18.0%
- P10
- -34.0%
39% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blend of the published official forecast path, which has the Brent spot price falling from 105 dollars in the fourth quarter of 2026 to an 84 dollar average in 2027, with a modeled roll term for the rolling-futures vehicle and an offsetting allowance for producer-equity distributions and free cash flow, which remain supported at 84 to 96 dollar crude. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- -1.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Three-year path in which crude converges toward a marginal-cost-plus-scarcity-premium range, global inventories continue to build, natural gas remains pressured by rising production, and producer shareholder yield provides the only positive carry in the asset class.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -10.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled annual shortfall of more than ten percentage points against the one-year Treasury par yield, not a forecast. This is the widest negative expected edge in the report and it comes from an official forward price forecast rather than from a view on momentum.