Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 67.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 92.1
- Upside to median
- -7.9%
- Last close
- $46.55
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +65.0%
- P75
- +30.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario distribution of price change only, since the asset produces no cash flow. Built from the justified cost-basis multiple range, the opportunity cost of a 4.47% risk-free annual hurdle and a 2.91% real yield, and the pace of marginal exchange-traded demand. The range is deliberately wide and the confidence deliberately low. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +35.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
Three-year path combining growth in the network's aggregate cost basis as new capital enters, constrained issuance, and a justified cost-basis multiple drifting toward the middle of its historical range. No cycle timing is inferred.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -2.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled annual shortfall against the one-year Treasury par yield, not a forecast. The one-year Treasury offers a higher expected return here with incomparably lower uncertainty: the modeled one-year range for this asset class spans 110 percentage points.