Metals
Today’s price sits at the 52.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 99.8
- Upside to median
- -0.2%
- Last close
- $384.58
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blend of a published second-half price-range anchor and bank year-end target range with a modeled real-yield sensitivity term and an allowance for the producer-equity and industrial-metal components of the asset class, which carry free cash flow and deficit-driven pricing respectively. Gold itself has no carry, so the expected return is a price-change distribution. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -8.0%
Three-year path linking the real gold price to a partial reversion of the 10-year real yield toward its ten-year mean, continued but decelerating official-sector accumulation, and structural supply deficits in the industrial-precious metals.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled annual shortfall against the one-year Treasury par yield, not a forecast. The one-year Treasury offers a competitive expected return here with materially lower uncertainty than a non-cash-flow metal.