China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 52.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 60–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 99.3
- Upside to median
- -0.7%
- Last close
- $52.55
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of a 7.52% forward earnings yield, a distribution yield of about 2.2%, consensus earnings growth of roughly 15% haircut for delivery risk, and a valuation-change term spanning a de-rating to 11x forward to a re-rating to 15x forward. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.5%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year path combining earnings growth decelerating toward nominal output growth, rising distributions and buybacks, and partial convergence of the cyclically adjusted multiple toward the emerging-market aggregate.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The spread is earned against a 49 point wide one-year return range, so the risk taken to capture it is substantial.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | -0.2Fair | 99.3 | $52.55 | +7.0% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | -0.2Fair | 99.3 | $34.24 | +7.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | -0.2Fair | 99.3 | $24.42 | +7.0% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.99 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $32.38 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.17 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $43.88 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.06 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.93 | — |