Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 59.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.7
- Upside to median
- -4.3%
- Last close
- $28.62
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -12.0%
76% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of earnings growth of about 7%, taken as a haircut to the 11% consensus expectation given three flat years, a cash distribution yield of about 3.3%, and a valuation-change term spanning a de-rating to 22.0x trailing to a re-rating to 27.5x. The exposure is unhedged, so the median is haircut for Australian dollar risk. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year path combining a high distribution payout, nominal earnings growth converging on regional output growth, and partial de-rating of the trailing multiple from 25.1x toward 23.0x.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. A spread of roughly one percentage point against a 29 point wide one-year return range is thin compensation for the risk taken.