Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 59.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 41% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 91.6
- Upside to median
- -8.4%
- Last close
- $97.86
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -12.0%
76% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of earnings growth of roughly 9% on the improving return-on-equity path, a distribution yield of about 2.2%, a buyback yield reflecting the current repurchase cycle, and a valuation-change term spanning a de-rating to 14.0x forward to a re-rating to 17.5x. The exposure is unhedged, so the median is haircut for yen risk and for delivery risk on the governance reform path. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +3.5%
- P10
- -1.0%
Three-year path in which return on equity rises from about 11% toward 12%, book value compounds at the retained-earnings rate, distributions and buybacks continue at the current elevated pace, and the price-to-book multiple converges toward the model's justified range.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The exposure is unhedged, so the realised spread also depends on the yen against the dollar.