Valuation Lens — October 9, 2026

The broad U.S. investment-grade bond market screens as the cheapest asset class against today's modeled fair-value distributions, while gold-led metals, crude oil and developed Pacific equities trade at the widest premiums to modeled economic value.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 9, 2026Last market session Oct 9, 2026Data cutoff Oct 9, 2026, 8:06 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.47%1y Treasury

A 4.47% one-year Treasury par yield sets a demanding cash hurdle, and a 2.91% ten-year real yield in the 99.8th percentile of its ten-year distribution raises the discount rate applied to every long-duration asset.

10y Treasury: 5.2%
10y real: 2.9%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+1.3
Cheap
Median fair value
102.199.6–104.5
Upside to median
+2.1%
1y modeled
+6.5%-1.5% to 13.5%
vs Treasury
+2.0%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.087.3–109.8
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+11.0%-17.0% to 33.0%
vs Treasury
+6.5%
Real EstateVNQ
+0.2
Fair
Median fair value
102.290.0–108.9
Upside to median
+2.2%
1y modeled
+8.0%-13.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.592.2–106.8
Upside to median
+0.5%
1y modeled
+9.0%-13.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+4.5%
US EquitiesSPY
-0.5
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.081.0–103.6
Upside to median
-4.0%
1y modeled
+8.0%-15.0% to 27.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.5
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
92.774.2–111.8
Upside to median
-7.3%
1y modeled
+3.0%-48.0% to 72.0%
vs Treasury
-1.5%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.787.3–105.4
Upside to median
-6.3%
1y modeled
+9.0%-24.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
+4.5%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
92.681.3–103.2
Upside to median
-7.4%
1y modeled
+8.0%-15.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
92.287.3–98.0
Upside to median
-7.8%
1y modeled
+6.0%-12.0% to 20.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
EnergyUSO
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
89.484.0–97.4
Upside to median
-10.6%
1y modeled
-8.0%-38.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
-12.5%
MetalsGLD
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
89.483.8–96.7
Upside to median
-10.6%
1y modeled
+1.0%-22.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
-3.5%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-09, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+1.3 Cheap	102.1 99.6–104.5	+2.1%	+6.5% -1.5% to 13.5%	+2.0%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	101.0 87.3–109.8	+1.0%	+11.0% -17.0% to 33.0%	+6.5%
Real Estate VNQ	+0.2 Fair	102.2 90.0–108.9	+2.2%	+8.0% -13.0% to 23.0%	+3.5%
Europe Equities VGK	+0.1 Fair	100.5 92.2–106.8	+0.5%	+9.0% -13.0% to 26.0%	+4.5%
US Equities SPY	-0.5 Somewhat expensive	96.0 81.0–103.6	-4.0%	+8.0% -15.0% to 27.0%	+3.5%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.5 Somewhat expensive	92.7 74.2–111.8	-7.3%	+3.0% -48.0% to 72.0%	-1.5%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	-0.6 Somewhat expensive	93.7 87.3–105.4	-6.3%	+9.0% -24.0% to 38.0%	+4.5%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	92.6 81.3–103.2	-7.4%	+8.0% -15.0% to 26.0%	+3.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.7 Expensive	92.2 87.3–98.0	-7.8%	+6.0% -12.0% to 20.0%	+1.5%
Energy USO	-1.8 Expensive	89.4 84.0–97.4	-10.6%	-8.0% -38.0% to 26.0%	-12.5%
Metals GLD	-1.9 Expensive	89.4 83.8–96.7	-10.6%	+1.0% -22.0% to 22.0%	-3.5%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+1.3Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 29.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 63%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 44.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 65%Historical base rate: 67%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 46.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 62%Historical base rate: 53%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 48.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 63%Historical base rate: 80%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-0.5Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 59.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 85%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.5Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 59.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

-0.6Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 59.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 50%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 69%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 78.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 68%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 79.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 11% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 31%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 81.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 13% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 42%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources18

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026
FactSet Research Systems
2
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026
FactSet Research Systems
3
Industry Analysts Project 20% Increase in S&P 500 Price Over the Next 12 Months
FactSet Research Systems
4
Stock Market Valuation - S&P 500
Overview Markets LLC (StreetStats)
5
MSCI Japan Index
MSCI
6
MSCI Europe Index
MSCI
7
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index
MSCI
8
MSCI China Index
MSCI
9
MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index
MSCI
10
BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
The Vanguard Group
11
2026 Mid-Year Update: REITs Rebound, Poised for Future Gains and Growth
Nareit
12
The State of REITs: September 2026 Edition
2nd Market Capital Advisory Corp
13
Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 - Outlook
World Gold Council
14
The Silver Market is on Course for Fifth Successive Structural Market Deficit
The Silver Institute
15
Silver Is Headed for a Sixth Straight Year of Supply Shortfall
GlobeNewswire via FinancialContent
16
Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
17
EIA Boosts Oil Price Forecast by $5 in 2026, $10 in 2027
Rigzone
18
Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Chart
Newhedge

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw_valuation_lens_2026-10-09_v340

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.