Metals
Today’s price sits at the 81.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 13% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.4
- Upside to median
- -10.6%
- Last close
- $384.58
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
The asset pays no cash flow, so the one-year return is pure price change: a quarter of the way converging toward a median fair-value index of 89.4, offset by nominal cost-push drift broadly in line with the 2.33% ten-year breakeven and by the structural deficit support in the silver sleeve. The range reflects the metal's realised volatility, including a roughly 25% retreat from its January 2026 high.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +1.5%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -11.0%
Valuation convergence spread over three years against continued official-sector accumulation and nominal inflation drift. No carry component exists, so the three-year median remains barely positive and well below the compounding one-year Treasury alternative.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -3.5%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled one-year median of 1.0% falls well short of the 4.47% one-year Treasury par yield, and the asset generates no income to close the gap; on this model one-year Treasury cash offers a competitive expected return with far lower uncertainty, and inflation-linked Treasuries at a 2.91% real yield offer the inflation hedge with contractual carry.