Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 78.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.2
- Upside to median
- -7.8%
- Last close
- $28.62
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -12.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 3.49% dividend yield plus earnings growth haircut from the 6.7% implied in the trailing-to-forward multiple gap down to about 4.5%, less roughly 1.95 percentage points from a quarter of the way converging toward a median fair-value index of 92.2. The range is narrower than the other equity blocks because income is a larger share of the total.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
A 5.8% starting forward earnings yield with a high payout ratio, low real growth, and a valuation drag of roughly 2 percentage points a year from converging toward the modeled justified multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- proxy
The thinnest positive modeled edge of any equity block at 1.53 percentage points over one-year Treasury cash, against a tenth-percentile outcome 12% below today's price; on this model one-year Treasury cash offers a competitive expected return with materially lower uncertainty.