Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 69.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.6
- Upside to median
- -7.4%
- Last close
- $97.86
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
72% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 1.84% dividend yield plus earnings growth haircut from the 24.2% implied in the trailing-to-forward multiple gap down to about 8%, less roughly 1.9 percentage points from a quarter of the way converging toward a median fair-value index of 92.6. The range reflects unhedged yen exposure for a dollar-based holder.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -1.5%
A 6.4% starting forward earnings yield, improving payout ratios lifting the income component above today's 1.84%, and a modest valuation drag from converging toward the modeled justified multiple over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled edge of 3.53 percentage points over one-year Treasury cash of which only 1.84 points is current income, the thinnest income contribution of the non-U.S. developed blocks; the balance depends on earnings delivery and on the yen.